"We as a committee have decided the RPI is kind of yesterday's news."

Posted: February 6, 2019 -- 12:20 p.m. CST

The NCAA men's basketball committee is meeting in Indianapolis this week for its annual selection orientation meeting. As part of that meeting, the committee will select and seed its top 16 teams, which will be unveiled at 11:30 a.m. Central Time, Saturday, February 9, on CBS' Bracket Preview Show.

Bernard Muir, the Director of Athletics at Stanford and this year's chair of the Division I men's basketball committee, spoke with the media during a conference call today to answer questions regarding the upcoming announcement, the selection process, and, of course, the NCAA's NET metric.

During his opening remarks, Muir stated:

"Saturday's announcement will include a ranking of the top 16 teams in order through games of this Friday. It's important to note that there are literally more than a thousand games left in the season. Obviously, lots can change between now and selection week. However, we think this exercise is good for us as a committee as it helps us set the table for the next five weeks; and, we think it's good for the sport in general.

"In year one of the bracket preview show, 15 of the 16 teams ranked in our February exercise remained in the top 16 when we did it for real in March. Last year, 13 of the 16 teams were the same from February to March. Interestingly enough, two of the three teams that fell out of our top 16 in February were still 5 seeds in the tournament, while the other fell to a 10 seed. This illustrates how much can happen from now until the end of the season."

The NET rankings replaced RPI as the primary sorting tool for evaluating teams. It was approved in July after consultation with the Division I Men's Basketball committee, National Association of Basketball Coaches, top basketball analytics and Google Cloud Professional Services.

The system relies on game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency and qualities of wins and losses.

The committee no longer uses the RPI in the selection process.

"I'm not looking at the RPI any more. We as a committee have decided the RPI is kind of yesterday's news," Muir remarked. "Now, we have this new feature called the NET. That's what we're plugged into.

"Again, the NET is just one tool that we have at our disposal. When you look at those team sheets, there's a number of metrics we can pull from. That's what I've been using as my guide.

"Another thing I think we need to underscore throughout this process is observation. Certainly watching games, watching how teams perform, is really important, as well as any metric we can use."

Some coaches have expressed concern regarding how much a loss of more than 10 points would have a negative impact on a team's NET. Muir said coaches should not be concerned about that scenario.

"We've heard some coaches express some concern," Muir said. "I can tell you, and in talking with the committee at large, there's a thousand possessions that occur over the course of a year. Coming down to one possession is not going to adjust your NET that significantly.

"Really what's important in those games, in every game, is who won the game and how did they do, where the game was played."

"I know coaches are concerned about the efficiency and overall efficiency, but I would say what's most important for us is just making sure that we see the end result and how teams are playing.

"The efficiency came into play. We ran various models about looking at this metric; and, we realized with the scoring margin, the 10 felt right. That's why you heard the number in scoring margin where we capped it at 10. But, at the same token, the bottom line is what we're looking at, how teams played and what was the end result."

Muir says the committee has completed some of the work regarding which 16 teams will be announced Saturday.

"We've done our initial ballot. Our ultimate goal is to have 24 teams seeded," Muir acknowledged.

"I can say the first two lines, we pretty much are certain of who will occupy those first two lines. It's the 9 through 24 which still needs a lot of discussion, to be sorted through. We'll have a lot of work to do today and tomorrow to figure that out. But, we think we know at least the top 8 who are certain to occupy those first two lines.

"Again, on Saturday we'll only be revealing the overall 16."

Though fans will be fans, people should not panic nor get overly excited with where their favorite team is ranked this Saturday.

"As we reveal on Saturday this bracket of 16, know that depending on the results that are coming down the pike as we finish up the regular season, as well as look at conference tournaments, things do adjust," Muir added. "We've seen that year after year where teams really start out strong. They might have taken on some water, that makes it a little harder to say are they still in the tournament or are they seeded where we thought they should be seeded. In some cases, if they take losses, they drop. In some cases, you might have teams that really accelerate down the stretch and their seeding could improve."

Muir does believe the NET may see some tweaks in the future; but, he and the committee are very pleased with the NET.

"We feel really good about this tool," Muir said with confidence. "It's doing exactly what we set out. Somebody asked me earlier, do I see this thing could be potentially tweaked down the road. Possibly. I could see our committees down the road maybe wanting to make adjustments.

"For right now, we feel like this is a heck of a tool. Somebody mentioned to me not too long ago when the iPhone first came out, everyone thought what a terrific tool. But, now, I see kids walking around with iPhone 11s or 12s. Heck of a tool, but modified over the years. I bet the NET will do the same at some point. It will evolve. Right now we feel like this is a great first step."

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