KG's NBA Finals Prediction
Basketball fans! We're just hours away from the start of the 2009 NBA Finals! The Orlando Magic vs. the Los Angeles Lakers.
Superman vs. the Black Mamba.
It's time for me to add my take on the series. Here goes.
If Phil Jackson decides to start Andrew Bynum at center, how will Bynum handle Dwight Howard's power? Will the Lakers decide to double-team Howard and free up the Magic's three-point shooters or let Bynum defend Superman one-on-one and see if Howard is good enough to dominate on the offensive end for an entire series?
Personally, I don't believe Howard is good enough (yet) to be a legit scoring machine to warrant double-teams on a consistent basis; so, if that's the case, the Lakers can see if Howard can "get his" and limit the number of open three-point shot attempts for Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, Mickael Pietrus, Courtney Lee, and Rafer Alston.
Howard got in early foul trouble versus the Cleveland Cavaliers; and, Orlando struggled to score without him. Howard simply must avoid silly fouls against the Lakers because Pau Gasol is skilled enough on offense to make Orlando pay even if Howard avoids foul trouble. Gasol isn't strong enough to bang with Howard for an entire game; but, Gasol is smart enough to make Howard work for his points.
If LA is able to cut down those open threes, how will Orlando adjust?
Turkoglu, 6'10", basically, runs the Magic's offense from the top of the key when Orlando goes into the steady diet of pick-and-roll offense. Can Lamar Odom or Trevor Ariza's long arms give Turkoglu problems in the pick-and-roll? Time will tell. Hedo can step behind the pick and shoot from three very well; but, he's also quick enough to dribble to the basket and finish or dish to an open teammate.
Rashard Lewis' game may be impacted the most if the Lakers are able to limit the open three-point shots for the Magic. Lewis is a much better spot up shooter than he is scoring in the post or attacking the basket. Lewis may need to do more of the latter two skills in order for Orlando to be successful in the series.
LA's success in the series may hinge on the production of the "Candy Man" -- Lamar Odom. Odom has been inconsistent player his entire NBA career; but, he needs to have a positive impact on both ends of the floor in this series for the Lakers to win four times.
Trevor Ariza must not try to do to much against his former team in order to show the Magic they made a mistake in trading him. Ariza is a good athlete; a good defender (except in the post); and a much improved three-point shooter.
Kobe Bryant is better than Courtney Lee. Bryant is better than Pietrus. Bryant knows this and the Magic players know it, too. However, Bryant must take smart shots. Lee and Pietrus simply must make Bryant work for his points as much as possible. The more Kobe attacks the basket the more problems he'll give Orlando. Kobe should not settle for outside jump shots. Orlando would be content with Bryant shooting jumpers the entire series. Trust me.
Mickael Pietrus became a household name in the Eastern Conference Finals versus the Cleveland Cavaliers. Pietrus outscored the Cavs' bench players by himself; and, he also did a solid job defending LeBron James. Let's see if Pietrus can continue his solid play versus the Lakers. On paper, Pietrus seems to have the advantage over LA's Luke Walton, Sasha Vujacic, and to a lesser extent, Shannon Brown. However, Pietrus needs to take good shots and be smart with his fouls when he's defending Kobe Bryant.
As long as Jameer Nelson doesn't play a lot in the series for the Magic, LA's Derek Fisher should be able to defend Rafer Alston or Anthony Johnson because those three guys have the same foot speed. Nelson's quickness would give Fisher fits.
Alston must limit his turnovers and make a decent number of his perimeter shots. The less "4 for 13" (or worse) games Alston produces the better Orlando's chances of winning the series.
If Nelson plays consistent minutes, then Anthony Johnson's minutes will probably be reduced a great deal. If Nelson doesn't play, Johnson must play solid defense; make his open shots; and get the ball to Howard early and often.
I'm not going to discuss the coaching match-up between Big Chief Triangle (LA's Phil Jackson) and Ron Jeremy (Orlando's Stan Van Gundy). Both men simply need to make adjustments if necessary.
Bottom line...
KG says -- Lakers in 6. Last October, I picked the Lakers to win it all; so, why stop now?
Superman vs. the Black Mamba.
It's time for me to add my take on the series. Here goes.
If Phil Jackson decides to start Andrew Bynum at center, how will Bynum handle Dwight Howard's power? Will the Lakers decide to double-team Howard and free up the Magic's three-point shooters or let Bynum defend Superman one-on-one and see if Howard is good enough to dominate on the offensive end for an entire series?
Personally, I don't believe Howard is good enough (yet) to be a legit scoring machine to warrant double-teams on a consistent basis; so, if that's the case, the Lakers can see if Howard can "get his" and limit the number of open three-point shot attempts for Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, Mickael Pietrus, Courtney Lee, and Rafer Alston.
Howard got in early foul trouble versus the Cleveland Cavaliers; and, Orlando struggled to score without him. Howard simply must avoid silly fouls against the Lakers because Pau Gasol is skilled enough on offense to make Orlando pay even if Howard avoids foul trouble. Gasol isn't strong enough to bang with Howard for an entire game; but, Gasol is smart enough to make Howard work for his points.
If LA is able to cut down those open threes, how will Orlando adjust?
Turkoglu, 6'10", basically, runs the Magic's offense from the top of the key when Orlando goes into the steady diet of pick-and-roll offense. Can Lamar Odom or Trevor Ariza's long arms give Turkoglu problems in the pick-and-roll? Time will tell. Hedo can step behind the pick and shoot from three very well; but, he's also quick enough to dribble to the basket and finish or dish to an open teammate.
Rashard Lewis' game may be impacted the most if the Lakers are able to limit the open three-point shots for the Magic. Lewis is a much better spot up shooter than he is scoring in the post or attacking the basket. Lewis may need to do more of the latter two skills in order for Orlando to be successful in the series.
LA's success in the series may hinge on the production of the "Candy Man" -- Lamar Odom. Odom has been inconsistent player his entire NBA career; but, he needs to have a positive impact on both ends of the floor in this series for the Lakers to win four times.
Trevor Ariza must not try to do to much against his former team in order to show the Magic they made a mistake in trading him. Ariza is a good athlete; a good defender (except in the post); and a much improved three-point shooter.
Kobe Bryant is better than Courtney Lee. Bryant is better than Pietrus. Bryant knows this and the Magic players know it, too. However, Bryant must take smart shots. Lee and Pietrus simply must make Bryant work for his points as much as possible. The more Kobe attacks the basket the more problems he'll give Orlando. Kobe should not settle for outside jump shots. Orlando would be content with Bryant shooting jumpers the entire series. Trust me.
Mickael Pietrus became a household name in the Eastern Conference Finals versus the Cleveland Cavaliers. Pietrus outscored the Cavs' bench players by himself; and, he also did a solid job defending LeBron James. Let's see if Pietrus can continue his solid play versus the Lakers. On paper, Pietrus seems to have the advantage over LA's Luke Walton, Sasha Vujacic, and to a lesser extent, Shannon Brown. However, Pietrus needs to take good shots and be smart with his fouls when he's defending Kobe Bryant.
As long as Jameer Nelson doesn't play a lot in the series for the Magic, LA's Derek Fisher should be able to defend Rafer Alston or Anthony Johnson because those three guys have the same foot speed. Nelson's quickness would give Fisher fits.
Alston must limit his turnovers and make a decent number of his perimeter shots. The less "4 for 13" (or worse) games Alston produces the better Orlando's chances of winning the series.
If Nelson plays consistent minutes, then Anthony Johnson's minutes will probably be reduced a great deal. If Nelson doesn't play, Johnson must play solid defense; make his open shots; and get the ball to Howard early and often.
I'm not going to discuss the coaching match-up between Big Chief Triangle (LA's Phil Jackson) and Ron Jeremy (Orlando's Stan Van Gundy). Both men simply need to make adjustments if necessary.
Bottom line...
KG says -- Lakers in 6. Last October, I picked the Lakers to win it all; so, why stop now?
posted by Kris Gardner @ 11:17 AM
3 Comments:
At June 4, 2009 3:44 PM,
Anonymous said…
Go Orlando!!! Go Rafer!!!!! It may take all 7 games, but please, NOT LA!!!!!
At June 4, 2009 4:20 PM,
SirCharles said…
I agree with Orlando in 7 and please not LA. I don't want to be a LA hater just a Kobe disliker. Power to Rafer.
And KG, great analysis of the teams. You should be a 'Sportscaster'.
At June 4, 2009 6:43 PM,
Anonymous said…
If I had a dollar for every time you went against the conventional wisdom, I would still be looking for my first dollar. You are correct too often. Don't fall for that LA hype. They are ripe for a fall. If the Lakers win this series it will take seven games. I feel the Lakers have used up all their magic, so my pick is Orlando in 6. And both George Washingtons from previous series are backing me up.
SilverStreak
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