Jazz - Rockets Analysis
Obviously, the Rockets have two distinct advantages over the Jazz:
Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming.
Starters
I believe Jazz forward Carlos Boozer is going to have a big series. He has to in order for the Jazz to be successful. Boozer is a better player than the Rockets power forward tandem of Chuck Hayes and Juwan Howard. Period. However, if Boozer doesn't punish them on the block and make his open perimeter shots consistently, Utah is in trouble.
As long as Yao Ming avoids foul trouble, he'll dominate Utah simply because the Jazz do not have an answer for defending him.
However, Mehmet Okur is a better perimeter player than Yao Ming; so, when Utah runs the pick-and-roll with Okur, Memo's ability to hit the outside shot as well as attack the basket should give Yao Ming and the Rockets trouble. Okur should not settle for jump shots. He needs to attack and get to the foul line as much as possible.
Andrei Kirilenko is an important player in this series. He has not played well for much of the season; however, his long arms can, at least, give T-Mac something to think about when McGrady shoots from the outside. Therefore, McGrady needs to be aggressive and attack Kirilenko by driving into the paint in order to get a lot of free throw attempts as well as break down Utah's defense to free up open shots for his teammates.
Shane Battier needs to be aggressive and shoot the open looks he'll get when the Jazz rotate on defense. Shane should not be shy when it comes to shooting the ball in this series.
A key match-up in this series will be at the starting point guard position. Deron Williams is quicker and stronger than Rockets' guard Rafer Alston; therefore, Alston must be smart and quick in order to keep Williams in front of him and out of the paint. Neither Williams nor Alston are consistent threats from the perimeter; however, both can get hot from the outside. Whichever guard plays better overall (including limiting turnovers) in the series, could very well help lead his team to winning the series.
Veteran guard Derek Fisher is not a star player. Fisher is a strong guard who, though he's shorter than McGrady, can push T-Mac further out from the basket when McGrady tries to post him up. Fisher will try to do just about anything in order to disrupt McGrady's jump shot. If Fisher makes any perimeter shots, it's a plus for the Jazz.
Tracy McGrady needs to play aggressively from the opening quarter throughout this series and show he's the best player in the series.
Bench
Utah's bench is more physical than Houston's bench. Forwards Matt Harpring and Paul Millsap like to use their strength when defending their opponents. Millsap (6'8) is a slightly taller version of Chuck Hayes which means he keeps loose balls alive and does the little things coaches and teammates love. Guard Gordan Giricek is a streaky shooter. His defense is shaky; so, the Rockets need to attack him as much as possible.
Luther Head is a big key for the Rockets in this series. Luther has a tremendous ability to make clutch shots in the fourth quarter; and, he is also good at coming off then bench in the first half and providing the Rockets a much needed offensive boost. Luther should try to mix up his game with some drives to the basket in order to complement his outside shooting.
Juwan Howard will be a key because of his ability to make the open mid-range shot; however, Howard needs to be a positive force on the boards for the Rockets. Juwan's rebounding will help ease the burden on Hayes and Yao Ming.
Dikembe Mutombo's minutes should not be extensive because if Deke is playing a lot of minutes, Yao Ming must be in foul trouble. However, Mutombo simply needs to maximize the minutes he does receive and be a consistent force on defense.
Head coaches
Jazz head coach Jerry Sloan and Rockets head coach Jeff Van Gundy are no nonsense coaches. Neither man seeks excuses for poor play. Neither team will be unprepared in this series because both men are extremely detailed in their preparation. Sloan and Van Gundy want efficient offense with solid screens and good, hard cuts. The pick-and-roll (defending it, too) will be HUGE in this series.
I believe this series will be hard fought and competitive throughout. Rebounding should be very important in this series.
HRR Prediction: Jazz in 7. While I'm not as confident in my "Jazz over the Rockets in 7" prediction as I was April 2, I'm not going to change the prediction. No money is involved. If I'm wrong, I'll have the opportunity to cover the Rockets in the Western Conference semi-finals which is not a bad thing at all.
Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming.
Starters
I believe Jazz forward Carlos Boozer is going to have a big series. He has to in order for the Jazz to be successful. Boozer is a better player than the Rockets power forward tandem of Chuck Hayes and Juwan Howard. Period. However, if Boozer doesn't punish them on the block and make his open perimeter shots consistently, Utah is in trouble.
As long as Yao Ming avoids foul trouble, he'll dominate Utah simply because the Jazz do not have an answer for defending him.
However, Mehmet Okur is a better perimeter player than Yao Ming; so, when Utah runs the pick-and-roll with Okur, Memo's ability to hit the outside shot as well as attack the basket should give Yao Ming and the Rockets trouble. Okur should not settle for jump shots. He needs to attack and get to the foul line as much as possible.
Andrei Kirilenko is an important player in this series. He has not played well for much of the season; however, his long arms can, at least, give T-Mac something to think about when McGrady shoots from the outside. Therefore, McGrady needs to be aggressive and attack Kirilenko by driving into the paint in order to get a lot of free throw attempts as well as break down Utah's defense to free up open shots for his teammates.
Shane Battier needs to be aggressive and shoot the open looks he'll get when the Jazz rotate on defense. Shane should not be shy when it comes to shooting the ball in this series.
A key match-up in this series will be at the starting point guard position. Deron Williams is quicker and stronger than Rockets' guard Rafer Alston; therefore, Alston must be smart and quick in order to keep Williams in front of him and out of the paint. Neither Williams nor Alston are consistent threats from the perimeter; however, both can get hot from the outside. Whichever guard plays better overall (including limiting turnovers) in the series, could very well help lead his team to winning the series.
Veteran guard Derek Fisher is not a star player. Fisher is a strong guard who, though he's shorter than McGrady, can push T-Mac further out from the basket when McGrady tries to post him up. Fisher will try to do just about anything in order to disrupt McGrady's jump shot. If Fisher makes any perimeter shots, it's a plus for the Jazz.
Tracy McGrady needs to play aggressively from the opening quarter throughout this series and show he's the best player in the series.
Bench
Utah's bench is more physical than Houston's bench. Forwards Matt Harpring and Paul Millsap like to use their strength when defending their opponents. Millsap (6'8) is a slightly taller version of Chuck Hayes which means he keeps loose balls alive and does the little things coaches and teammates love. Guard Gordan Giricek is a streaky shooter. His defense is shaky; so, the Rockets need to attack him as much as possible.
Luther Head is a big key for the Rockets in this series. Luther has a tremendous ability to make clutch shots in the fourth quarter; and, he is also good at coming off then bench in the first half and providing the Rockets a much needed offensive boost. Luther should try to mix up his game with some drives to the basket in order to complement his outside shooting.
Juwan Howard will be a key because of his ability to make the open mid-range shot; however, Howard needs to be a positive force on the boards for the Rockets. Juwan's rebounding will help ease the burden on Hayes and Yao Ming.
Dikembe Mutombo's minutes should not be extensive because if Deke is playing a lot of minutes, Yao Ming must be in foul trouble. However, Mutombo simply needs to maximize the minutes he does receive and be a consistent force on defense.
Head coaches
Jazz head coach Jerry Sloan and Rockets head coach Jeff Van Gundy are no nonsense coaches. Neither man seeks excuses for poor play. Neither team will be unprepared in this series because both men are extremely detailed in their preparation. Sloan and Van Gundy want efficient offense with solid screens and good, hard cuts. The pick-and-roll (defending it, too) will be HUGE in this series.
I believe this series will be hard fought and competitive throughout. Rebounding should be very important in this series.
HRR Prediction: Jazz in 7. While I'm not as confident in my "Jazz over the Rockets in 7" prediction as I was April 2, I'm not going to change the prediction. No money is involved. If I'm wrong, I'll have the opportunity to cover the Rockets in the Western Conference semi-finals which is not a bad thing at all.
posted by Kris G @ 3:05 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
Links to this post:
Create a Link
<< Home